Corona status in Israel – good and not good

This article is about the interpretation of statistical trends, not some insights about politics. The state of the coronavirus infections are both good and bad for Israel. What’s good? Very few people died because of the virus. What’s bad? So few people who are recovered (cured) compared with the rest of the world. Here follows a more detailed report about the state of the coronavirus in Israel.

Photo by Josue Ladoo Pelegrin on Pexels.com

Be aware, this article is actually only interesting for the fourth of April, because tomorrow you have other data and other interpretations based on the actual situation one day later then this one.

Compared with 21 other countries, Israel reaches the 17th place about the number of recovered people (cured).

OrderCountry% Cured
1China93.81%
2Iran33.72%
3Germany26.96%
4Spain25.60%
5Singapore25.31%
6Egypt21.93%
7France21.77%
8Japan20.60%
9Hong Kong20.47%
10Canada17.66%
11Belgium17.13%
12Italy16.49%
13Taiwan14.37%
14Australia10.93%
15India7.48%
16Russia6.77%
17Israel4.55%
18USA4.41%
19Netherlands1.59%
20Brazil1.40%
21UK0.35%

The first case of Coronavirus in China was somewhere in November/December 2019. The actual official reports about 100 infections in China were the 18th of January 2020. The first cases of the virus were reported in Hong Kong the 22nd of January 2020, in Singapore the 23rd of January 2020, in Japan the 15th of January 2020, many European countries got their first infections reported at the end of January 2020.

The first case of Coronavirus in Israel was reported at the 21 of February 2020; that’s 43 days ago. At the 19th of March, Israel had reached the first 100 infections, and that’s 16 days ago. When exactly started the Israeli authorities to prepare for the pandemic?

Israel is telling its citizens and the rest of the world that their medical facilities are the top of the world, but the results of the recovery rate of the coronavirus is very poor.

Infection rate

The temperature map for the infection rate in Israel.

Each day there are reports about the number of cases in Israel. Such reports do not tell how many people are infected (they call that active cases).

Above figure, at the first line (white background), you see the number of cases. The increase of those numbers are displayed in the second line. The increase in percentage is displayed at the third line and the number of days it takes to double the cases in Israel is displayed at the fourth line.

The values in the third line are being used in the temperature map.

  • If the increase is less then 100%, then there are less infections reported compared with the day before. That’s good. In this case, it means that the coronavirus is shrinking.
  • If the increase is 100%, that means that there is no increase nor decrease of the number of infections compared with the previous day. Not bad, neither good.
  • If the increase is more then 100%, then there are more infections reported compared with the day before. That’s bad. In this case, it means that the coronavirus is growing.
  • The three red cells indicate the record number of newly reported cases.

The above figure displays the number of death, cases and the recovered (cured). The column Active cases are the actual people, who are infected (cases-death-recovered).

If you calculate the percentage of the people recovered, we’ll see a rate of 4.55%. That’s only 4.55% (or 338 people who are recovered from the coronavirus infection). Meaning that it took Israel 42 days (since first case reported in Israel) and 125 days the virus started to appear in China to cure 338 people from the coronavirus infection.

According the WHO, it takes about 14 days maximum to get rid of the virus. My question is why it takes so long and why are there so few people recovered.

According the projection (of the WHO, 14 days), there suppose to be at least 677 people recovered (cured). The percentage of recovered people in Israel suppose to be 9.11%!

This projection seems to be reasonable accurate, because the actual cases of recovered people are not far from the reality.

But Israel is not the only one with this problem. Here is a list with the cured, the projected cure and the comparison between the two:

As you can see, Israel is behind with 50%. That’s not as bad as with the countries Brazil, UK, Netherlands and Singapore.

The status of the coronavirus in Israel

The current status (3rd of April 2020) of the situation about the coronavirus pandemic is in Trial Recovery.

There are three types of status recognized in this article:

  1. Recovery status means that more than 10 days ago, a record number of infected people were reported. It’s also called a peak.
  2. Trial recovery status means that between 1 and 9 days ago, a record number of infected people were reported.
  3. Growing infections status means that the last day was the highest number of new infected people reported.

According that definition, Israel is official in Trial recovery. It was three days ago that the highest number of newly infected people were reported. This trend needs to continue at least for seven more days, before the official status is changed into recovering. If that is the case, we’ll see an end of the coronavirus pandemic for Israel at Tuesday, 19th of May 2020.

As long as there is no setback, or a record number of newly infected people reported from now on, we’re in an uneasy recovery (or Trial recovery).

For your information, this is the list of other countries then Israel and their corona-status:

Click here for the daily coronavirus status.

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