We are now 128 days in coronavirus crisis. And you know what? 125 Days of increasingly reported new infections, each day, none stop. This has changed. The peak was reached the third of April 2020 and from that day the number of newly infected people decreased. From the 21 monitored countries, only thee are still in trouble. Four countries are clearly in recovery and the rest of the countries are in ‘trial-recovery’ (or uneasy recovery).
- Canada, France, Japan, Netherlands, Taiwan, UK, US and Brazil are in a very uneasy recovery mode. Meaning that only a few days have passed since their last peak (record number of new infections). This situation might change dramatically the coming days.
- Germany, Israel, Spain, Belgium, Iran and Australia are in a better recovery mode (more then 5 days have passed since their last peak.
- The numbers from Iran are very suspicious. Out of the blue those numbers started to give a positive trend and their supplied numbers did not contain any peak (up or down), like any other country in the list.
- China, Hong Kong, Italy, Taiwan are all in recovery mode.
Different statistical methods
When you watch, listen and read about the media and the established scientific organizations and institutions and their websites, you might observe the overblown numbers of hundreds of thousands till millions of sick and dead people, coming very soon, but never happened. The same for the needed resources for hospitals and medical equipment they lack on accuracy
For those knowing about those statistical models, they know also about those tendencies, and are aware that the established scientific organizations and institutions publish those numbers for the scientific community, and those numbers are very likely not matching with the reality. They know that. Those numbers are there to be corrected over time until the pandemic is finished. Their last version is the correct version.
There is another approach, the so called common sense approach. The same logic as the farmer was using thousand of years ago, and that method is still working fine and will work in the next thousand of years as well.
I use the common sense method to monitor the the coronavirus. With a pandemic, you have the begin, the peak and the finish. The begin, where the first case of infection appears, the peak, where the highest number of infections are reported, the finish, where there are no new infections are reported.
That is the true stats of the virus (except the none-reported cases).
The established scientific organizations and institutions are trying to figure out an acceptable mortality rate. Sure. But this only shows how far they live from the population on earth. It’s not possible to produce one mortality rate for all.
For example, the mortality rate in Italy is 12.47%, while the mortality rate in the US is 2.94% and in Israel 0.63%. Look at the table below for more:
|No.||Country||First Death||Days after first death||Number of death||% death|
The reason for that is that society lives different then in the US or Israel. Each country has its own unique culture and live their lives already like that for hundreds, some of them for thousands of years. No scientific oriented intelligent person can change that fact, unless they live on the moon.