Don’t be fooled by the so called scientific reports about the state of the corona-pandemic. Cases or “Total Confirmed cases” are not the numbers of people infected. And don’t be fooled by those so called mad scientists, which are using the number of death to measure the state of the pandemic, they are wrong (on purpose). And finally, don’t rely, or better, believe the projections and predictions of the mad scientists, because they are wrong, just as other scientists are trying to predict the weather.
Display suggestive information
When people stare in horror at their computer screens, which displays the latest numbers of the corona-pandemic, they moan about so many infections. They refer to the cases.
What they don’t realize is that the cases does not tell the number of infections. The number of infections are somewhere hidden within their presentations.
When the time comes that the pandemic is almost over, and there are almost no infections anymore, that number of cases stays the same; that number will never go down.
Total cases is an interesting given, but for the purpose of scientific research, not to supply information to the general public.
If you want to see the number of infected people in the world, you need to look at the number Active cases.
The above number under the label Cases is the historical number of all infections (relevant or not), which includes the people who died and the who are recovered. With other words:
Number of infections = Cases – Death – Recovered.
Number of infections = 2,178,149 – 145,329 – 546,743
Number of infections = 1,486,077
The people who are making such websites don’t make mistakes and they (on purpose) present the wrong numbers, which does not have any practical value for the general public. They love the panic it’s causing, they love the attention, because that means more funding for them and that they stay more relevant than ever.
So the display suppose to be:
Presenting ‘scientific’ statistical models
In the scientific world, creating statistical models based on mathematical algorithms is a common thing. They present those models to the scientific community, for which they are build. People who are studying pandemics are using those models to study the impact of a pandemic on society and to research ways to improve their predictability methods. It’s a process of error and trial and many versions of their models are being generated, all the time more improved until they have reached the end of the pandemic and they can work on the final version for that particular pandemic. But each pandemic is unique and has different parameters.
But to use those models for general ‘consumption’ is madness and really the wrong way to go. It’s a guaranteed way towards confusion, disorder, wasteful resources, wrongly developed policies, unrest, panic, disaster, out of control pandemic and misinformation in society.
The main reason why those scientific institutions were allowed to do this is because of the lack of understanding by the politicians who hire them, and they have no idea what a scientist is and what work he or she does and the methodologies and processes they use to do their work. They assume it’s nothing else then another ‘adviser’.
The reason why those scientific institutions love this chance to show their work is the huge funding they receive because of the attention, and of course to show the world what kind of beautiful work they are doing.
The reason why the politics get involved in those presentations is to manipulate it in a way, that the situation is being displayed as worse then it is without lying.
Measuring the state of the pandemic
In the media you can read that governments and the so called specialists are using the number of death as guidelines and indicators about the state of the pandemic. Some British lawmakers were barking that they were monitoring the number of death to see how far the pandemic is going and when it’s finished. Another was saying that the pandemic is finished when there are no death people are being reported.
What those people are lacking is common sense. But what do you expect of political appointees, not? You could easily replace them with a goat and you see immediate improvement.
No, you measure the pandemic by the number of people who are infected. Not the death, not the recovered, not the serious ill. No, only the people who are infected. The number of death is only a sub-section of the total picture and doesn’t indicate any state then only a mortality rate. Also, the number of death is totally different region by region. There are more death in Europe (88,319 death (9%)) then in Africa (913 death (5%)). Does that mean that Africa is almost finished with the pandemic? No, of course not.
What about Italy then? Why are there so many death in that country? Maybe it’s because of the way how the family structure is based on tradition, where families contain grandparents, parents and children living together in one house or apartment? If you compare that with Israel, which has only 130 death (or 1% mortality rate), maybe because the elderly don’t live with their children and grandchildren at the same home?
To measure the state of a pandemic, you measure the number of infected people based on historical data, not predictions. There are too many variables to make any accurate predictions. But what you can do is discovering trends. That works fine.
A pandemic has a start (the first infection within the country reported), a peak (the highest number of infected people reported) and an end (no infection within the country reported).
When monitoring the pandemic, you wait for the first case. If that has happened, the pandemic is in the first phase. You wait until the peak occurs. That takes usually between the 40-50 days. After the peak, the pandemic is in phase 2, the recovery. Now it’s waiting for the end of the pandemic, which takes usually between the 40-70 days after the peak.
For example, Israel is 52% in the pandemic, the US is 63%, the UK 60%, the same for Spain and Sweden.
Methods of fighting the pandemic
The method being used to shutdown the economy is really not the way to fight the pandemic. That’s equivalent with the expression that the cure is worse then the disease and it is.
- Protect and isolate any retirement home, prison, army, navy and air-force bases and any organization or institution, where large amount of people are being held who can’t leave
- Protect and isolate the elderly and people with health-risks
- Provide more then enough materials to fight the pandemic, like masks, etc.
- Provide guidelines and advisory and don’t allow the authorities to panic
- Let the society continue as it is, don’t close any shop, business or school
- Start to test on a massive scale. Anyone who’s tested positive must be isolated for 15 days and only released when the final tests return negative.
- Provide the infected people with proper medicine (which are already available in the market).
If you think this is crazy, look and learn: South Korea and Taiwan did exactly like that and look at he state of the pandemic in those two countries! It’s almost gone. Sweden is the third country doing something like this, and their state of the pandemic is the same as the rest in Europe.
The rest of the countries who don’t follow those guidelines have a huge existential problem of a destroyed economy, which cost the nations trillions of dollars at the very least, not to mention the loss of their freedom and live in a police state.
Talking about common sense.
Organizations like the WHO
You can’t avoid politics in such organizations like the WHO, because they run mainly on huge funding from certain countries like China, US and others. To avoid the expected problems, take care that there is an oversight commission or board in place, which enables to receive complains and can act instantly. In case if there is any sign of corruption, take that person out immediately and replace him or her with another. If that can’t happen, don’t accept any guidelines or help from such tainted organization, just like South Korea, Taiwan and Sweden did successfully.