Shocking trends in corona virus pandemic!

The Completeness of the Pandemic Worldwide

Some global numbers Worldwide

  • The average infection increase/decrease of the corona virus is -3.40%
  • The average mortality increase/decrease is -32.88%
  • The average recovery increase/decrease is -7.24%
  • One person infected per 810 people (3.65% decrease).
  • One person dies per 6,846 people (2.14% decrease).

Lowest and Highest Corona Pandemic numbers Wordwide

  • The lowest increase of infections was at October 13, 2020.
  • The highest increase of infections was at October 1, 2020.
  • The lowest increase of recoveries was at October 1, 2020.
  • The highest increase of recoveries was at October 13, 2020.
  • The lowest increase of mortalities was at January 22, 2020.
  • The highest increase of mortalities was at October 16, 2020.

Active cases

The number of people, who are actually infected by the coronavirus.

Total increase or decrease worldwide corona
Total increase or decrease worldwide corona

Cases and Active Cases

There is confusion about the terms Cases and Active Cases.

  • Cases are the numbers about people who were infected.
  • Active cases are the numbers about people who are infected.

If you place the daily numbers about cases in a graph, you will see that this number always goes up! If you do the same with active cases, this will present itself as the actual number of infections for that day.

Active Cases (infected persons) = Cases - Recovered - Mortalities

Recoveries and Mortalities

Mortalities are the number of people who have died. Those are (or suppose to be) coronavirus related deaths.

This number is not reliable at all. In the UK, there were times when any death occurred during the pandemic was pegged as death by the coronavirus. In the state NY (US), there were times when the number of deaths caused by crime and traffic was entirely pegged to the categorization of coronavirus linked deaths.

Recoveries are mostly related to those patients discharged from the hospital. Many countries in the world neglect to report those who are (verified) infected by the coronavirus and were not hospitalized.

For example, there are 41,967,587 cases, 31,178,020 recoveries and 1,142,167 mortalities at October 22, 2020. Using the above 'formula', we get:

41,967,587 - 31,178,020 - 1,142,167 = 9,647,400 active cases or infected people at the 22nd of October, 2020.

Cases, Recoveries, Mortalities and Active Cases Worldwide

Cases, Recoveries, Mortalities and Active Cases Worldwide

What happens when there are no active cases anymore?

If there are no active cases anymore, meaning that there are no people infected, that means logical wise that there is no pandemic anymore. The pandemic is now finished, no coronavirus, no infections, no hospitalizations, no deaths. It is really finished!

How do you calculate this?

You calculate what part of the cases are still infected. For example, when there are 10 cases, and 5 active cases, 50% of the pandemic is complete. Or with 10 cases and 1 active case, 90% of the pandemic is complete.

  • Worldwide,  the pandemic is 77% complete. Meaning 23% of all cases need to be processed (recover or die).
  • Israeli completeness of the coronavirus is 94% (October 22, 2020).
The Completeness of the Pandemic Worldwide

The Completeness of the Pandemic Worldwide

The Completeness of the Pandemic Worldwide and Israel

The Completeness of the Pandemic Worldwide and Israel

Note There is a national lockdown in Israel from September 15, 2020 until now (October 22, 2020)

As you can see, the completeness percentage in Israel is much higher compared with that of the worldwide numbers.  At the 29th of September 2020, the completeness percentage started to grow till the end (yesterday, September 22, 2020). That has obviously to do with the full national closure of the country.


Recoveries and being immune

Being immune against the corona is an issue which is excessively discussed throughout the world. All kinds of preposterous arguments are being used by scientists:

  • It's unknown if the people who're recovered from the corona are immune.
  • It's likely that the immunity takes only two weeks and not more.
  • The COVID-19 is too new to conclude that anyone is immune.

And more of such strange statements from people with academic degrees, assuming that they are reasonable intelligent.

If you use logic and look at the facts, then you can make up your own mind. It is quite clear for everyone to see and nobody needs to have any academic degree or be a specialist in the medical or statistical field.

Cases, Recoveries, Active Cases and New Infections Worldwide

Cases, Recoveries, Active Cases and New Infections Worldwide

Cases The yellow to gold line represent the registered cases
Recoveries The green line represent the recoveries
Active cases The blue line represent active cases
New infections The red line represent the increase (or decrease) of new registered infections
The Increase and Decrease of infections per day Worldwide

The Increase and Decrease of infections per day Worldwide

There is a very clear trend regarding the number of new infections per day, as you can see in the above chart. In case that those people who eventually recover from the infection do not have an immunization against the corona virus, the number of new infections would show a growing tendency, but it does not.

The proof of Immunity - get it in perspective

Let's look at three of the greatest scientific theories:

  • the theory of evolution
  • the Big Bang theory
  • the theory of gravity.

You have also heard of the concept of proof, and the claims that certain pieces of evidence prove the validates of these theories.

Fossils, genetic inheritance, and DNA prove the theory of evolution. The Hubble expansion of the Universe, the evolution of stars, galaxies, and heavy elements, and the existence of the cosmic microwave background prove the Big Bang Theory. And falling objects, GPS clocks, planetary motion, and the deflection of starlight prove the theory of gravity.

For science, this is absolutely incorrect. While they provide very firm evidence for those theories, they are not proof.

In fact, when it comes to science, proving anything is an impossibility.

All the scientific theories out there are based on expectations. You never know when those assumptions will suddenly become untrue. For example, you can compute the size of the universe, but you use measurements which are limited. When we try to measure the size of the universe again, let us say one year later, with new and improved measurements, you get a difference.

In the perspective of science, proving anything is an impossibility.

And that means that asking a scientist if people can get immune from an infectious disease, you shall never get a straightforward answer. And it does not differ if you relate the question about corona or the Spanish Flu. Even now, after so many years, the scientists are still not giving a full answer. Even the question if the Spanish flu started in 1918 is not a fact from the viewpoint of a scientist; there is evidence supporting that, yes. But that does not mean that it is accurate!

And then we have those bright politicians, who think to ask a scientist how to cope with the current corona pandemic. This pandemic is new, and there are not much details known about it. A scientist, who never can and is able to answer plainly and firmly.

Common sense though tells different. People get sick from an infectious disease, recovers and is immune against it (for some time).

The principle of a vaccination is built on the previous statement. With a vaccine you get a certain small amount of the infectious disease injected and your body builds protection against it; it will become immune to that disease.

In summary, if you ever expect a clear answer from a scientist about immunity, you can wait infinitely, because you shall never get it. That is not the person to ask a question like that.

The four kinds of corona immunity

But we continue about immunity.

(according Vineet Menachery, a coronavirus researcher at the University of Texas Medical Branch in Galveston)

Sterilizing immunity

Sterilizing immunity would be a best-case scenario. It describes an immune system that is armed against a foe, able to fend it off before infection can take hold.

Functional immunity

Functional immunity, on the other hand, may be within reach. In fact, it’s the scenario Menachery sees as most likely.

Under this scenario, people whose immune systems have been primed to recognize and fight the virus — whether through infection or vaccination — could contract it again in the future. But these infections would be cut short as the immune system’s defenses kick into gear. People infected might not develop symptoms or might have a mild, cold-like infection.

Waning immunity

Waning infection, the third scenario, is a variation of functional immunity. In this scenario, people who have been infected or vaccinated would lose their protection over time. But even if immunity wanes, reinfections would be less severe, Menachery said.

Lost immunity

Lost immunity describes a scenario in which people who have been infected would lose all their immune munitions against the virus within some time frame. A reinfection after that point would be like a first infection — carrying all the same risk of severe disease now seen with Covid-19.


Getting immunity because of a vaccine or by natural infection?

And take into consideration that until now there is no good vaccine against the coronavirus!

The question here is that if people recover, and the majority do, are they immune against the coronavirus?


But not all people are immune after they recover from corona. There are a few cases where they get infected again. But those cases are rare. The absolute majority of the people who have recovered from corona are immune.


The herd immunity

Herd immunity is a form of indirect protection from infectious disease that occurs when a sufficient percentage of a population has become immune to an infection, whether through vaccination or previous infections, thereby reducing the likelihood of infection for individuals who lack immunity.

Many scientists are responding viciously and extremely negative to the question about herd immunity regarding corona. Honestly, I've no idea why.

The fact is that there are people recovering from the coronavirus (more than 31 million people worldwide), and the substantial majority are immune against the coronavirus and that is not caused by any vaccine, because there are no vaccines accessible at the moment of writing.


Source: Worldometers.

Download the Source spreadsheet with statistical models: Corona statistics, version 2, Oct 23 2020

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