Isolate the society to reduce growing infections from the corona pandemic is an answer, a solution, but it’s not the only solution! For the readers all over the world, let’s take the example of Israel, who has implemented the second national lockdown (isolation) and see what’s happening there. Is it effective, did it reduce the growing corona infections, did it caused problems, and did the population experienced the second lockdown positively?
Let’s see. In Israel there were two isolations. Currently the second isolation is still not finished.
|Isolation of Israel||First lockdown||Second lockdown|
|Begin of isolation||11/03/2020||15/09/2020|
|End of isolation||20/05/2020||Still busy|
The second isolation started at the 15th of September 2020 and the Israeli government promised that the duration of the isolation is three weeks. They broke their word, because after almost 12 weeks, the isolation is still not finished for big parts of society. You also need to take into account, that Israel likes to publish two set of “factual” data about the corona pandemic in Israel, one for internal consumption and one with the actual numbers.
The Israeli government also claimed that the first isolation was not effective (enough), because they didn’t opened the economy and society gradually. They (the government) intend not to make that mistake again.
Well, indeed the Israeli government is gradually opening the economy and society. But does it help?
New infections during the isolation
Here follows a chart about the isolation (from September 15 until November 4, 2020):
As you can see, the number of infections went dramatically down during the isolation. The linear trend is obviously going down too. The shutdown of economy and society was successful. They not only defeated the upward trend of new infections, but they brought it down so low.
The change happened at the 14th of October. The number of infections went down from (original) 9,078 (September 30) till 1,612! Since then the number of new infections stayed under the 2,000 new infections per day. But the government became greedy, because they wanted to have even lower numbers, so they didn’t reopen the Israeli economy and society and chose to try to get the new infections below the 1,000 and keep it there.
From October 23, the new infections went under the 1,000 new cases per day and stayed like that … until the November 25th. From the 29th of November it went again above the 1,000 cases per day with 1,025 new infections.
But there is now a “small” problem. They started gradually and slowly to reopen the Israeli economy and society, and the number of infections went up! This is what the government wants its people to show:
Increase of infections in Israel from November 1 till December 4
What the government doesn’t realize, neither their medical advisers:
- That it is extremely difficult to lower the infection numbers from 600 per day to even lower (especially after the numbers peaked in September 25th with 8,390!). If that would be the reason why they want another shutdown, that’s a wrong reason.
- With each enforced national lockdown, the actual end date of the pandemic is postponed (again).
- It becomes extremely difficult for the government to explain to its 9+ million population why the country needs to go into lockdown restricting everyone, when the pandemic only influences 0.14% of the Israeli population!
- The financial costs of the Israeli population is devastating. There are not many people, who didn’t lose large part of their income, if not all. The Ministry of economy reported a 22% of unemployment, but that number is not realistic, it only concerns with people registered as unemployed. With a shutdown, where 80% of the Israeli population can’t work means an unemployment of 80%.
- The resentment of the Israeli population with its government is only growing to alarming levels.
- The Israeli government uses mainly medical advisers to assist them in their policy making. That’s extremely dangerous and plainly wrong.
The looming third lockdown
And because of the above chart, which only displays this specific situation, the Israeli government has announced that they want to have a third national lockdown implemented. Sources in the Israeli government mentioned multiple times the 15th of December 2020 for a third lockdown. They are discussing two scenarios:
- One version will start the 15th of December and will last two weeks
- The other version will start the 15th of December and will last four weeks.
But with both versions, they already announced that they want to release the lockdown gradually.
I translate this in plain language. The second lockdown (which is still in effect) gets extended with two or four weeks and is likely to hold until March 2021.
And for those readers who live in a country with another looming lockdown, here are some tips.
The reason why infections go up in Israel
As the collective of the Israeli population, after too many months being isolated, locked up and restricted, their futures destroyed, have the natural tendency to celebrate the “going back to normal“. Nobody can do anything about that, because it’s only normal. If that would not happen, that would be a real reason to worry for the government and the authorities, because that would mean that the population would be out for their heads, figurally speaking.
Humans are not for nothing social creatures. If the government wants to reduce that, it asks for trouble.
The Israeli government likes to point fingers to several groups in the population, which is a bad idea. They accuse the anti-government and Netanyahu protesters, Jewish religious people and the Arab population of acting unresponsible during the corona closure. It might be true or not, but the normal Israeli population doesn’t act much differently! But the government lives so far away from its normal population, they have no idea.
And the biggest reason why the infections go up in Israel is that the government finally seriously increases the number of corona tests. “Suddenly” they discover more infections (which were always there). The logical truth is that there were always so many infections in Israel, and they didn’t discover this until they implemented enough testing centers throughout the country.
And finally, the Israeli government applies censure over news about the corona pandemic in Israel. That’s a crucial mistake, because they it limits the possible solutions to fight the corona pandemic.
The costs for Israel is staggering. The Israeli economy is heavily hit, just like most of the countries in the world. We’re are talking multiple billions of dollars here … per month. And don’t believe the reports from the Israeli Ministry of Economy, because their estimates are way too low. And then we have the vaccines, which cost millions and we’re not finished with buying it, but it must be used in the population and that cost additional billions too.
And all of those billions mentioned, is nothing what the financial costs is for the people in Israel. They are the ones, who are actually paying the bills. The government’s role is spending the tax money.
In the beginning of the closure, many people (not all) received unemployment from the government, but that money is not infinitive. Their alternative is social welfare or receive nothing. Many other people didn’t receive anything, especially those in Israel working with a working visa.
And that’s only the financial costs, the mental costs are staggering as well. If we take Japan as example, the number of suicides supersides the number of corona death. The Israeli Ministry of Health doesn’t publish any new data about suicides in Israel – for some reason.
Not all of it is bad for citizens. There is a large trend of working remote or online. Look for the online work database for more information. For those who want to earn some dollars to pay for small bills or to eat, you can spend your time and efforts on online work. But i medium and long term this is bad for the government, because this type of online work doesn’t pay for the taxes.
Also the number of jobs offered in Israel is changed. At this moment of writing writing, 40% of the job offers are online jobs (work from home remote work, whatever you want to call it).