Lockdowns or Quarantines? Lockdowns increase Infections

What's the difference between quarantines and lockdowns?

There is a difference between lockdown and quarantine. I hear people constantly mixing those words when they describe a lockdown. Lockdowns are not quarantines in the old-fashioned sense of that term, where infected people were isolated—kept separate in every way from the non-infected. Quarantines can make sense; lockdowns never do.

Lockdowns are forced gatherings. People in lockdown are allowed to go outside from their locations they live at that moment and do the essential things, like spending money in the shops, which are allowed to stay open, like supermarkets. Those shops are collection points, where people are concentrated.

Google employees can eat in their own cafeterias or break rooms, too. Restaurants can still come to you, via delivery. Another concentration point. Lockdowns are not quarantines. Lockdowns concentrate people into fewer areas.

Lockdowns allow people outside to mingle for a time, then it forces them back inside to mingle with a vengeance.

It's only logical that the transmissible coronavirus will spread much faster when people are forced to spend more time indoors with each other. When one person gets it, he or she spreads it to those at his location immediately. If there would be no lockdown, and more separated, the spread would be much slower.

But what will work is quarantine the population. Similar happened in China. That works. Everyone is locked up and they wait until the virus is gone. Not one person can infect anyone, and the spread is stopped in its tracks. But that's the extreme, which is impossible to implement in the western world. The implementation is extreme, so will be the consequences of such quarantine.

It's obvious before 2020 with the spread of influenza, with only the weather forcing people to gather inside their homes for a long period helped to spread the flu.

The Israeli lockdown as model and proof of concept

Israel might see itself as a proof of concept and model as a startup country, and recently as a vaccination country, but it is also a model for a lockdown country.

Health experts tracking the effectiveness of the UK’s lockdown last year (November 5 2020) say there were more corona cases in London when the lockdown ended compared to when it started. Their solution? Another lockdown. "Because that makes perfect sense".

“The capital is now the second worst region in the country, just behind the West Midlands, with more than 15,000 people testing positive in the past week, a rate of 169.6 per 100,000 people, up from 150.9 a month ago,” reports the Telegraph.

With the way how infections are spreading with flu at the "flu season", the main reason for that is the concentration of gatherings at home because of the weather. One catches the flu and instantly infects the others at home.

In 2020, where the flu is now categorized as corona (which includes the cases and death), the idea of the so called experts is that  lockdowns will stop or at least slow the spread. "Science" said so.

Well, look around you. Look at Israel.

Israel is already under a lockdown since 15th of September 2020. 113 long days, 16.1 weeks and 3.7 months of lockdown. And did the spread stop or slow down?

New Infections in Israel during lockdown
New Infections in Israel during lockdown

Yes and no.

  • As you can see, the number of infections continued to climb right after the (second) lockdown was implemented (15th of September 2020).
  • It reached the peak at the beginning of October 2020, about two weeks in the lockdown.
  • Then the number of infections slowed down.
  • It took one month and a week to slow it down under the 1,000 infections a day (from 9,000 infections a day (30/9/20)).
  • This continued for about a month and a week, and the infections went up again (29/11/20).
  • The new infections continued to rise until this moment of writing.

The government forced the implementation of the third lockdown (while the second lockdown was still in place!) at the 27th of December 2020. That's ten days ago (from the moment of writing this article). They allowed primary education to continue to work, because "... those poor children are suffering so much ...", ignoring the rest of the population, which suffers even more.

To make it even worse, the Israeli government decided a fourth lockdown, starting the Thursday, 7th of January 2021. They claim this one will only lasts two weeks. That's what they said also with the so called third lockdown.

Another lockdown. "Because that makes perfect sense".

Fear, that always works

The Israeli Ministry of Health published corona numbers and the Israeli press was eating it up without double checking the facts. Right before the announcement comes of another lockdown (the fourth), they prefer to "be creative with the new infections" statistics. They claim that the new infections in Israel was up to 8 thousand a day, while the real statistics reported about 6 thousands a day (6,631 infections (4/1/21). That's a recurrent event. Right before announcing a lockdown (all four of them), they publish inflated infecion numbers.

An additional tactic they keep repeating is that they force medical officials to claim that the hospitals will be full very soon, they are "working almost at full capacity". One peak at such hospitals learns that they are about half full with patients, and most of them not corona patients.

Another tactic is to spike the number of corona cases and death with the numbers flu cases. Miraculously, "suddenly" the flu cases almost disappeared. And above that, the number of expected flu cases is the same as the sudden increase of corona infections.

And maybe it is by chance. But every time when Prime Minister Netanyahu must appear befor the court, there is a lockdown. Not one time, but every time when there is a lockdown.

Who are those experts advising the Israeli government?

People from the medical field and preferable Professors (that looks good for the populace). Just like politicians, those people are living in their bubble totally disconnected from normal society. The last time an Israeli politician like Prime Minister Netanyahu talked with the "normal man" on the streets is more than 15 years ago, if not longer.

Those people need special advisers to tell them about Israeli society. Those are the politicians. Those VIP medical experts also live separately from normal Israeli society. They tend, as specialists do, to approach medical cases objectively; only facts count, nothing else. Economical events are just a vague term, which they really don't understand.

They think that bringing down the infections from contagious disease, like corona, you simply isolate the hosts. Without contact with each other, no further infections will take place. In practice, this applies only with a total quarantine. It seems that they are unaware of the difference between a lockdown and quarantine! Or they are forced by the politicians to advise lockdowns.

To force a quarantine on millions of people is theoretically possible, but that will destroy the society.

What's the correct way?

Apply multiple panels of experts. The medical experts reduced to supply advise about the medical aspect of the pandemic in Israel. Multiple groups of experts from the various parts of society and science. For example a panel of economic experts. And above all, no VIPs, but real experts. That's the correct way. And one person leading those panels of experts, who is an independent person, who will finally advising the politicians.

In this way, the people of Israel and its government are advised professionally.

 

So, do lockdowns work or not?

With most shops, cinemas and other entertainment venues closed, people in major cities pour en masse into parks or beaches where ‘social distancing’ is virtually impossible because there are so many people around.

The rates of corona infections are always higher after any lockdown than before it started. The Israeli government, advised by their so called specialists, think that lockdowns work. When it's proven that it doesn't work, they simply double down and have another lockdown within a current lockdown and then they double down again.

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