How is the Vaccination program going?

The vaccination program in many countries is going very bad. From the 17 monitored countries, only the US has 7.05 million people vaccinated, China 4.5 million, the UK with 1.5 million and Israel 1.2 million. The rest of the countries much less. Worldwide, 18.9 million people are vaccinated for the COVID-19 virus, 0.24% of the world population, 523,836 people per day.

Only Israel has 13.5% of its population vaccinated This is interesting, because we can see if the vaccine has already some effects on the mortality numbers.

But first the breakdown of the numbers per monitored country:

Country Date start vaccine programs Days of  vaccination program Number of vaccinations Vaccinations per day Part population vaccinated
Argentina 28/12/20 Mon  13  40,000  3,058 0.09%
Canada 14/12/20 Mon  27  248,000  9,158 0.66%
China 15/12/20 Tue  26  4,500,000  172,546 0.31%
Denmark 27/12/20 Sun  14  102,000  7,244 1.76%
Finland 27/12/20 Sun  14  11,000  781 0.20%
France 21/12/20 Mon  20  82,000  4,084 0.13%
Germany 26/12/20 Sat  15  477,000  31,631 0.57%
Ireland 29/12/20 Tue  12  15,000  1,242 0.30%
Israel 20/12/20 Sun  21  1,200,000  56,926 13.51%
Italy 27/12/20 Sun  14  500,000  35,511 0.83%
Mexico 24/12/20 Thu  17  58,000  3,395 0.04%
Norway 27/12/20 Sun  14  17,000  1,207 0.31%
Portugal 28/12/20 Mon  13  70,000  5,352 0.69%
Russia 05/12/20 Sat  36  800,000  22,173 0.55%
Spain 28/12/20 Mon  13  278,000  21,254 0.59%
United Kingdom 16/12/20 Wed  25  1,500,000  59,809 2.21%
United States 14/12/20 Mon  27  7,050,000  260,340 2.13%
Worldwide 05/12/20 Sat  36  18,900,000  523,836 0.24%

 

Israel the vaccination guinea pig of the world

Israel started with the vaccination program from the 20th of December 2020, and currently they are busy vaccinating the population already for 21 days. They vaccinate almost 57,000 people per day, 13.51% of the Israeli population. They focus first on vaccinating the medical personnel, elderly and the people with underlying diseases.

The Israeli government has also announced that it will take two weeks before the protection is effective. So, you can state, in this case, that you see the number of death steady decreasing 14 days after the vaccinations. That means that the protection will start from January 3, 2021. Does it?

Here is some basic data about the Pandemic in Israel:

There are about two lockdowns in Israel.

  1. The first lockdown started at March 3, 2020 and ended at May 20, 2020. That's 70 days, 10 weeks or 2.3 months.
  2. The second lockdown started at September 9 2020 until now. That's 117 days, 16.7 weeks or 3.9 months ago.
    1. The Israeli government announced a third lockdown (when the second was not even released fully), which started December 27 2020 until now. That's 14 days, 2 weeks or 0.5 months ago.
    2. The government announced another lockdown (or extension) starting from January 7 2021. That's 3 days at the moment.
Lowest/Highest increase
 Lowest   Peak 
Increased infections 11/10/2020 02/01/2021
Since last peak  8
Recovered 22/01/2020 04/10/2020
Death 22/01/2020 08/10/2020
Lockdown(s) of Israel  First   Second 
Begin 11/03/2020 15/09/2020
End 20/05/2020 10/01/2021
Duration (days) 70 117
Duration (weeks) 10.0 16.7
Duration (month) 2.3 3.9
Third' lockdown 27/12/2020 10/01/2021
Duration (days) 14
Duration (weeks) 2.0
Duration (month) 0.5
 Fourth' lockdown 07/01/2021 10/01/2021
Duration (days) 3
Duration (weeks) 0.4
Duration (month) 0.1

The corona situation in Israel (at the 8th of January 2021):

 Peak   Latest 
 Cases 11/10/2020  477,357
Recoveries 04/10/2020  408,753
Mortalities 05/01/2021  3,596
Infected at: (Incubation)  Days  5
Critical ill (calculated)  Rate (global) 2%
Active cases  Latest  65,008
Population infected %  Average % 0.19%
1 infected X people  Last  137
Increase  Average % -3.59%
1 death X people  Last  2,471
Increase  Average % -3.56%
Increase cases  Latest  6,309
Left from cases 13.62%
Incr. Active Cases  205  513
Incr. Active Cases %  Average -7.74%
Increase recoveries 85.63%  5,840
Recovery rate 99% 59.35%
Incr.Recov.%  Average -10.82%
Increase Mortality 0.75%  44
Mortality Rate 0.90% 0.81%
Incr. Mortality.%  Average -8.74%
Complete %  Last 86.38%

 

Infections in Israel
Mortalities in Israel

It's too early to say (as usual). The statistics about the mortalities might be misleading. Why?

  1. It's still unclear if the number of death reported are indeed truly the numbers for those who really died because of the coronavirus, and not because of flu (suddenly the number of flu cases have virtually disappeared).
  2. In case of corona death, those are the people infected several weeks ago.
Mortalities in Israel from January 1 2021 - January 8 2021
Mortalities in Israel from January 1 2021 - January 8 2021

At the chart above, you see the mortalities from January 1 2021 until January 8, 2021. The number the death doesn't seem to decrease, and it seems that it continues with the slow parabole.

The number of infections in Israel between January 2021 and the January 8 is a bit more promising:

Infections in Israel from January 1 2021 - January 8 2021
Infections in Israel from January 1 2021 - January 8 2021

It's too early to see if the vaccine is indeed effective

It's too early to say if the vaccine is indeed effective. But tomorrow is another day and we'll see what's different.

The Israeli government is claiming almost every day that in fourteen days everyone can see the differences in the number of mortalities and new infections. But they are saying this already every day and every day it's waiting for 14 days.

I believe that we will see already (now and the current days) signs that the number of the mortalities and infections will go down gradually. It will not the case that in 14 days suddenly the infections and mortality drop drastically.

And if the vaccine has no effect on the mortalities and infections, this will be a very, serious problem for everyone and probably a continuous state of (semi) lockdowns from now on for many years to come.

The vaccination fear

And as last, but not the least, is the issue of vaccination fear, which is out there. It is a cold fact, that with any and every vaccination, there will be some of us having a negative reaction to the vaccine. Some of us will get sick, or even die. But those cases are extreme rare.

The governments and media are downplaying those cases and that's very bad. How more they try to suppress such news, how bigger the rumors will be, how more fear against vaccines it produces. I hate that governments and media know what is best for me.

I personally will receive my vaccine when my turn comes. I do that firstly because I don't live alone and I really don't want to be a potential risk for others. Secondly, it might be good to have a protection against the coronavirus.

But if the vaccine doesn't have any effect on the pandemic, no way I will get that vaccine. In that case, the only way to get rid of the pandemic is by natural infections reaching the 60% herd immunity as population.

Download the data

The core data is from Data Repository by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University. You can access that data from here.

All data presented here are from the above source and the spread is for the data analysis. You can download the zip-file (compressed) here.

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