Vaccination Program in Israel, January 9 2021

Do we see any changes yet?

There are changes in the corona statistics (compared with that from yesterday),  but not the ones we can hope for. Yesterday I hoped that the number of infections continued to go down because of the vaccination campaign, but that didn't happen (yet). The infections went up instead with 1,768, bringing it to 8,077 new infections for Saturday! Friday this was 6,309!

Also take into consideration that because of tightened closure-rules in the current lockdown (or the 4th one), less people are going out to take the initiative to get themselves tested for corona. It's very likely that the real number of new infections are much higher.

01/01 Fri 02/01 Sat 03/01 Sun 04/01 Mon 05/01 Tue 06/01 Wed 07/01 Thu 08/01 Fri 09/01 Sat
New infections  5,248  6,289  6,743  6,631  7,966  7,309  7,600  6,309  8,077

The Israeli newspapers report that there were 5,030 people diagnosed with coronavirus on Saturday. You might expect that media would like to check and double check the data supplied by the ministry, not? The newspaper further reported that there are 933 people in serious condition. According calculations, this number suppose to be 1,390 (2% of the cases on average in Israel).

Further it reports that 60 people died over the weekend, bringing the death toll to 3,645, according the newspaper. Actually, 49 people died and the death toll is indeed 3,645. Saturday there was an increase of 10% mortality, Friday there was an increase of 48%.

Above all of that, the Israeli government is telling the people that the main reason for a lockdown is to keep the hospitals from overflowing. People, everyone can take a look at a major hospital and see if there is no place, total panic and patients are outside in their beds. None of that is the case. It's actually better, there is loads of space and they are under capacity. There are 192,269 hospital beds available in Israel. So when someone claims that all beds in the hospitals are full, I can only laugh. What an idiots they are. Or are you telling me that this number is only propaganda?

They know that they can expect 1,390 corona cases (serious ill), but they have 933 cases (33% less than they have expected).


Infections in Israel from January 1 2021 - January 9 2021
Infections in Israel from January 1 2021 - January 9 2021

New infections during a lockdown

At this moment, Israel is in another lockdown (the fourth at the moment). A lockdown is not a quarantine. With a quarantine, there will be no new infections. Everyone will be isolated and there will be no physical contact with others. But national quarantines are impractical and damaging in other ways. A lockdown doesn't mean that the new infections will go away. No.

A lockdown will even increase the number of infections, especially in the beginning. Why? There will be more people gathering at fewer places. People concentrate themselves at those places (supermarkets, drugstores, clinics, hospitals and testing- and vaccination centers.

With a lockdown, new infections will occur for about seven weeks in the lockdown before the infection rate will go down and we will see reduction. This happened with lockdown number one and two:

Infections in Israel (lockdown #1) from March 11 2020 - May 20 2020
Infections in Israel (lockdown #1) from March 11 2020 - May 20 2020

 

Infections in Israel (lockdown #2) from September 15 2020 - December 27 2020
Infections in Israel (lockdown #2) from September 15 2020 - December 27 2020

In both cases, it took 51 days (with lockdown #1) and 49 days (lockdown #2) before the number of new infections went down to reasonable numbers.

Political motivated 4th lockdown

Israel is in a 3rd (and 4th) lockdown, starting at December 27. That means with the same logic, the 3rd lockdown will be down to acceptable numbers at the 15th of January 2021. The Israeli government knows that, but for some reasons, they imposed another lockdown on the current one) from the 7th of January 2021. Maybe they want to experiment, maybe they panicked, but it's more likely that this is politically motivated, because Prime Minister Netanyahu must appear before court and he doesn't want. He's doing everything possible to postpone it, and a closure is the way to do it. Exactly like with the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and now the 4th closure.

What about the vaccine?

Vaccine? What vaccine? Until now, it has no impact on the data.

It will take about two weeks before the vaccine start to protect the person vaccinated. Israel started to vaccinate its population (health care workers, people with health risk and elderly first) from December 20th 2020. That means the vaccine suppose to start fighting new infections from the January 3 2021. At the 3rd of January, 9% of the Israeli population was already vaccinated! Any sign of less infections? No. The opposite actually.

Infections in Israel
Infections in Israel
Infections in Israel from January 1 2021 - January 9 2021
Infections in Israel from January 1 2021 - January 9 2021
Mortalities in Israel
Mortalities in Israel
Mortalities in Israel from January 1 2021 - January 9 2021
Mortalities in Israel from January 1 2021 - January 9 2021

Infections and mortalities went up as usual. No effects of any vaccine.

When shall this lockdown end?

With the data as it is at the moment, and the 7 weeks period of reaching the peak of the infections during a lockdown, we'll see the situation ripe for the release of (all) lockdown(s) only at February 15, 2021 (at the minimum).

With the situation as it is with this government, they will not allow to release the closure, and will come up with a show that they care about our health, they don't want more death, so they want to make a gradual release plan, which will be implemented in stages with two weeks between the release dates. If one of those stages will cause an increase of new infections, everything will be paused or even rolled back and they will try it again until the infections go down.

It's the Israeli version of a shutdown.

With any luck, most of the people can go back to work right before the holidays. And be aware, that the government doesn't like that we enjoy ourselves, they will try to keep the country in lockdown until after the coming holidays. All of holidays.

It also depends on the date that Prime Minister Netanyahu must appear before court. We can be guaranteed that we will go into a (new) lockdown before that. This is not a joke, because it happens every time when Israel goes into a lockdown.

Download

You can download the spreadsheet here. It's an Excel spreadsheet.

In this spreadsheet, you can find the updated data for Israel only with the newest charts for the country. The rest of the data for other countries are not updated with the Saturday (January 9, 2021) numbers.

1 thought on “Vaccination Program in Israel, January 9 2021”

  1. Maybe I must organize a bet when this lockdown will be released in its full. The one closest to the date wins it all.
    The problem might be that someone might vote for the “never ending lockdown”. He or she will never cash in the winnings. So not possible.

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