Interesting Trends about Corona Closures

Shutdowns statistics

We take Israel as model, because they have an avalanche of corona closures. They had their first closure at 11/3/2020 until 20/5/2020 and the second closure at 15/9/2020 until now. They managed to announce a third closure at 27/12/2020, which also continues until now, and they enforced another closure at 7/1/2021. The first closure took 70 days and the second closure takes 121 days (and counting). The government financial damage for the closures is tens of billions of dollars and the damage for its population is uncountable.

Let's see what is common with all those closures.

  1. The decision to hold a national closure. This is pure political and particular to Israel. Interestingly, every time when a closure is enforced, it also forces a delay for Prime Minister Netanyahu to appear for court on multiple charges, one of them corruption.
  2. Numbers of new infections and death being inflated. Those numbers suddenly inflate a few days before the cabinet must or supposed to decide on a closure. The numbers don't correspondent with the Data Repository by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University.
  3. The decision of the national closure at cabinet level.
  4. The announcement of the expected national closure. The time between the decision and the actual start of the closure is from a couple of days till almost a week. You see in that period an influx of travelers going abroad or other places in the country, infecting more people. They learned to reduce this period with the 'third' closure.
  5. The start of the actual closure.
  6. The infections go up dramatically. The reason for this is clear. In a closure, there will be more people concentrating on fewer locations, so the infections will increase.
  7. The date when the new infections starts to slow down. In average, this takes about 22.5 days.
  8. The date when the new infections are under a certain and stated acceptable level (i.e. 1,000 infections a day). In average, this takes 50 days.
  9. (this happened only from the second closure) The set of rules to release the economy again from the closure to fully open as usual. This process would/will last several months. Each section of society will open and the government will watch the new infections. If everything is alright after 14 days, the next section can reopen. If not, the release will be paused or rolled back.
  10. The final date that the economy and society is open again. That happened only one time, right after the first closure, the 20th of May 2020. In practice, we are still under closure and lockdown from the second closure, four months ago.

What is common with normal closures (before COVID-19 pandemic appeared) in general is:

  1. The number of infections will be greater after the closure then it was before.
  2. The damage in society is much bigger than the damage of a pandemic during or because of closures.

 

Figure 1 - Infections in Israel (lockdown #1) Increase and stabilize infections

Figure 1 - Infections in Israel (lockdown #1) Increase and stabilize infections

As we can see in figure 1, the periods of the increase of infections and the stabilizing new infections are clearly marked in the chart.

Infections in Israel (lockdown #2) from September 15 2020 - Increase and stabilize infections
Figure 2 - Infections in Israel (lockdown #2) from September 15 2020 - Increase and stabilize infections

The same is the case with the second closure in figure 2.

Table 1, increase infections until ...
Closure #1
Start 11/03/2020
End 04/04/2020
24 days before new infections decreased
Closure #2
Start 14/09/2020
End 05/10/2020
21 days before new infections decreased

 

Table 2, Infections go down under a certain threshold
Closure #1
Start 11/03/2020
End 30/04/2020
50 days before new infections decreased
Closure #2
Start 15/09/2020
End 4/11/2020
50 days before new infections decreased

Summarizing:

  1. In every closure, the number of infections will strongly increase for a period of about 22.5 (average) days.
  2. In every closure, the number of infections will go down under an acceptable threshold. This takes for both closures 50 days.

With this data, you can calculate the third (or fourth) closure.

  1. The current (or last) closure started at 27/12/2020.
  2. The increase of the new infections, which are right now happening, will last for about 22.5 days, meaning that it'll be finished at 18th of January 2021.
  3. The low threshold (of about 1,000 new infections a day) will be reached at about the 15th of February 2021.

I only investigated the Israeli closures.

 

 

 

Vaccination? What vaccination?

Until now, there is no proof that the vaccinations in Israel are having any influence on the number of death and the number of new infections.

Infections in Israel
Infections in Israel
Mortalities in Israel
Mortalities in Israel

The new infections and mortalities went only up. There is no sign of improving the death rate or the infection rate.

When a confused reporter asks a (so called) scientist on live TV in late December 2020 how long it will take the vaccine to provide protection against the virus, the scientists answered promptly with a big smile "maximum two weeks!".

When the same or all confused reporters ask the same question at the beginning of January 2021, the scientists still claim the two weeks period before the protection kicks in.

Since the last days, the scientists changed their tune and now they are claiming two months. And by the way, they stopped smiling, looking as confused as the reporters.

They don't understand how this could happen, because in their safe laboratories with a selected number of participants of their clinical trial it started to work already after a couple of days and gradually it reached the 90% after two weeks!

Does the vaccination makes you immune against the COVID-19?

They don't know.

The CDC has this to say:

It typically takes a few weeks for the body to build immunity (protection against the virus that causes COVID-19) after vaccination. That means it's possible a person could be infected with the virus that causes COVID-19 just before or just after vaccination and still get sick. This is taken from the CDC website (source). But ... they have changed their content and ask themselves all the wrong questions. They claim now that persons can be infected, but they will not get sick. If that is the case, that means that the number of serious cases and death will be strongly reduced. Sorry, that is not the case in Israel, with almost 2 million people vaccinated, 22.41% of the Israeli population and almost a month of vaccinations.

The truth is that nobody can say at the moment if a person can be infected (again) by the COVID-19 virus after that person is vaccinated (source).

Maybe it takes indeed two weeks. Maybe two months. In two months, they might say it takes two years. Who knows.

How long before we can get back to normal?

Two answers. One for Israel. The government says (and they are right with the current speed of the vaccinations), that the full population will be vaccinated in April 2021. According the calculations, indeed the vaccination program will end at 12th of April 2021.

Now the second answer. Even if Israel manages to vaccinate everyone, that does not mean that they are protected against the coronavirus (, assuming that the vaccine works)? This depends on other countries. We live in a global world and Israel is interconnected with that same world.

With other words, Israel is only safe when the pandemic is finished, ended, worldwide. That means that the whole world needs to be vaccinated. Well, that is a serious problem. According the current calculation, it will take the world 26.7 years (27/7/2047) to be vaccinated and that is a very optimistic (theoretical) estimate.

Complications

Some reporters asked some scientists what would happen when the coronavirus mutates in a way, that the vaccines will not work anymore. Their answer is (while grinning) that it will take some tweaking for a couple of weeks and they have a new vaccine. That means that the whole vaccination program must restart again.

But what is really problematic, is that there will be three or four or ten or hundred mutations take place over time, and all of them will make the vaccinations unless. Would that mean that we must be vaccinated three, four, ten or hundred times to get a form of protection against all those coronaviruses out there?

If I would be those ignorant citizens, supporting the green (vaccination) passport, I would think twice. Not only is it against the international law, but it might give you problems when you need the second, third, fifth, tenth, hundredth vaccination. I don't need to tell you that this will not be healthy for you.

The only protection (which you already have) is common sense. Don't listen to propaganda and fake news.

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