This is an article about an unique campaign by humanity to stop a pandemic. Furthermore it will answer if this campaign is a glorious or disastrous undertaken. It tells about the actual status of the campaign, if the world is prepared, what we are facing and we will look if the vaccine is actually working with the claimed 95% efficiency or not and if and when we can go back to our old lives.
I tell you now already that the situation with the vaccinations looks very grim. The vaccination campaign doesn't do well and it doesn't look like that it will in the immediate future. For all the citizens who want to go back to the normal life before the pandemic, they will be disappointed, because the mainstream media is not doing its job. The media supposes to inform and alarm everyone that their governments are not performing at all about their efforts in vaccinating the people. The media doesn't confront the governments about it, they prefer to demonize Trump.
This article is about facts. I give references to the data I present here and with common sense I calculate the results like 1 + 1 = 2. If a country has 625,978 citizens, and it vaccinates 113 people per day, it will take 5,519 days to vaccinate all its citizens. 625,978 / 113 = 5,519. A simple calculation, not? It's also a real example of the country Luxembourg.
- Will it be glorious or disastrous?
- What's the current status of the World Vaccination Campaign?
- The world is ill prepared.
- The looming danger of the rapidly spreading pandemic.
- Does the COVID-19 vaccine work?
- But do we see the effects of the virus already?
- When can we return to our old lives?
- Download the data and analysis here.
- The Vaccination Database.
Will it be glorious or disastrous?
The world vaccination campaign will be glorious and unprecedented throughout history of humankind, a showcase of technological and organizational superiority of humankind. That is what the UN world health organization (WHO) is saying with big smiles on their faces ... well, their eyes shift a bit nervously.
And they have all reason to do so. In this article I will tell you exactly what that means and what effort the world must make to accomplish this noble effort (and what they really do). In order to be called glorious and go in history books as glorious and unprecedented throughout history of humankind, the world needs to perform 21.4 million vaccinations per day if they want to vaccinate the whole world in one year. Or 10.7 million people per day if they want to finish in two years. I really don't want to be sarcastic here.
Currently, the world vaccinated 913,530 people per day (in average) and they are busy already with the campaign for 44 days. They are 20,517,783 vaccinations (per day) behind schedule.
At this moment of writing, they are hopelessly behind and it's not a glorious campaign, but a disastrous one. But they might very likely go into history as the biggest showcase of technological and organizational failure of humankind. Unless they try to rewrite history.
Above all of that, the global mainstream media is mainly paying attention to the isolated President Trump, and criticizing the vaccination campaign in the US, while they don't write one single world about the shameful failure of their own countries. Above that, the US has the high rate of success in the vaccination campaign.
FYI: The US is about 56% behind the schedule of the vaccination campaign. To compare this with the world, the world is 96% behind schedule in their glorious vaccination campaign.
What's the current status of the World Vaccination Campaign?
In order to complete the vaccination campaign in one year, the world needs to vaccinate 21,422.113 people per day, without any break, without any delay. The WHO is the organization, which suppose to supervise this campaign with the help of all countries in the world, fails to convince almost anyone. At this moment, the world is about 96% behind schedule. Worse, with this tempo, they will complete the vaccination campaign in about 161 thousand years.
I think it is very likely that the world manages to vaccinate about 40% of the total population and ignore the third world. The result will be that the coronavirus will come back to the world each year, just like the flu and will include new vaccinations and new lockdowns.
- In the table below, we see the performance of 50 countries about their vaccination efforts.
- In the second column we see the size of the population of each country.
- In the third column we see the actual number of people vaccinated (at 17 of January 2021).
- The fifth column displays the number of people supposingly be vaccinated if they want to finish it in a year.
- The fourth column displays the percentage of the people actually vaccinated.
- The sixth column displays the number of people supposingly be vaccinated if they want to finish it in two years.
|Country||Population||Vaccinations per day||Campaign goal completed||Vacc. p.day required per day 1 year||Vacc. p.day required per day 2 years|
The world is ill prepared
Governments all over the world use wonderful words to announce that the end of the pandemic is in sight. Some governments are already announcing that it will take some weeks before everyone can return to their old lives, and everything will be fine soon. The light in the dark tunnel, promising wonderful times to come. They are lying.
The mainstream media, which supposes to inform the public worldwide about important things like the current pandemic and the vaccination campaign. They don't. None of the mainstream media is reporting about the performance of the vaccination campaign, with some exceptions here and there. Some blogs - like this one - is reporting it, but who reads that, not?
The French mainstream media for example, spends most of their time reporting about the so called "disastrous" US government's efforts against the COVID-19 pandemic and complains that the vaccination efforts in the US is bad and full with problems. The likely reason for those outrageous lies is the demonisation of President Trump and his government, who led the whole vaccination efforts (this is not my opinion, but an observation) and could accomplish the record speed of the development of the COVID-19 vaccines.
They forget or in their viciousness and ignorance, the US is 56% behind the schedule, while France is 92% behind schedule. The US will complete to vaccinate its whole population of 332 million people within 2.3 years in the current tempo. France though, with its population of 65 million people will finish in 12 years vaccinating its population.
The French media are not the only one who is poorly or not at all reporting about the vaccination campaign. The subject of the campaign is totally ignored by almost all, with some exceptions like Bloomberg, which maintains a vaccination tracker. The only thing what the mainstream media reports about this subject are the infections and death in the US, their own (national) infections and death, the threats of the coronavirus mutations, their (looming) national shutdowns and of course the "evil" President Trump.
And the governments are very happy with the mainstream media. Can you imagine that the world (and their national) populations discover their pitiful performance of vaccinating campaign?!
The looming danger of the rapidly spreading pandemic
When a host cell is infected (penetrated) by the coronavirus, the virus duplicates itself in about 12 hours (with the help of the host cell). The new virus particles duplicate itself again the next cycle. With one virus particle, you will have 2, 4, 16, 256, 65536, 4294967296, etc. virus particles. When there is no place in the cell for so many virus particles, they will be booted out of the cell and the host, and those will be used to infect other hosts, like you and I.
Like with all types of life, it multiplies. The birds do it with an egg, humans with a baby, and viruses doing it by duplicating themselves with the help of a cell they have penetrated. That's the fact of life. The multiplication process with humans are about nine months, the multiplication process for a virus is a couple of hours. But a human is also millions of times larger than a virus.
Another fact is that sometimes an "accident" happens with a multiplication process. That is a normal process in nature and is required to evolve as species. Without these "accidents", we would never have evolved from one cell organisms. With humans we can witness this when we see for example enlargement of the brain volume over the thousands of years, or the size of our larger bodies, less hair grow, etc. The same with viruses, it mutates too (or as the scientists call it) small changes in the genome (all genetic material of an organism or its DNA).
While the world had 94.5 million infections until now (Sat. January 16, 2021) during more than a year, the coronavirus had been thousands of times mutated. Or their were thousands of small changes in the virus genome.
Many of those changes made the virus particle weak, and when it duplicated, it didn't dominate. Some of those changes made the virus particle strong, and when it duplicated, it did dominate the other virus particles. For example the UK mutated coronavirus is dominant and causes an influx of more infections in the UK, and later big parts of the world as well. Another example is the South African mutation, which is said to have a bigger resistance against the existing vaccines. Scientists are still investigating that.
How longer the pandemic exists, how more mutations will take place. That is a given. The chance that a coronavirus might mutate to a deadly variant becomes bigger each day. It is simply the question of time. Such mutation can appear in a hour from now, a day, week, month, year ... but it will come.
It is like staring at a mountain with a huge snowball on top of it. We are all down looking up at the snowball, cursing at Trump. Any moment the wind will push the snowball downward on our stupid heads. And the people who are responsible in warning us about it, (mainstream media) are silent about this real threat.
Does the COVID-19 vaccine work?
Yes, they work, according Pfizer. And the UN, WHO, government and the scientists. Pfizer and its partner BioNTech were the first ones to develop the vaccine based on a new technology in the US with the generous help and assistant of President Trump and his team and government. Without this corporation between them, the vaccine would not be developed so fast. This accomplishment can be part of the history books.
But now we come to the question, does the vaccine actually work? The answer is that nobody can say if it works or not, because with the development of the vaccine, they cut the time of enhanced and long-term testing. They assume that it will work, based on phase 3 clinical testing.
Pfizer tested the vaccine in a laboratory environment with thousands of carefully selected (infected) people, who got the vaccine and Pfizer was studying the effects of it. They were overjoyed, because already in the early stage of the phase 3 clinical testing, they already noticed a dramatic improvement of thousands of their test subjects. At the end, the vaccine was declared 90% (and later 95%) efficient (= effective only in protected lab-environment).
But the question is, how effective is this? Efficient does not apply on real life situations, which are so much more complicated than the lab-environmental testing.
So far the introduction.
According the theory and assumptions, when a population will have a herd immunity of 60%, it is enough protected that the number of new infections will be drastic reduced and assumingly the pandemic will disappear. Reaching this percentage means that the 60% of the population is vaccinated and/or immune after infection and recovery. I'm only focusing here at the infection rate, not reduction of serious ill.
The US is one of the countries, which started with the vaccination process relatively early at December 14, 2020. That is 35 days ago. The US has about 13.6 million people vaccinated, or 4.12% of its population. The US is also the only country in the world that vaccinated so many people. All mainstream media doesn't mention that, of course. According the "theory" of the herd immunity, 4.12% is too low to have any impact on infections over a population.
We take another example. We take Israel. Israel managed to vaccinate about 26% of its population. The UAE about 19%. Those percentages are neither 60% or higher. But they might show some change in the new daily infections. Why? Because during the clinical trial of the vaccine, there were already noticeable positive changes visible after some days! If that is the case, let us take Israel as guinea pig example. Shall we?
We can see the results of a possible vaccine with the help of a chart. Here it comes.
Are there any positive effects of the vaccine visible? Did the number of new infections go down, even slightly? And be aware, that Israel started to vaccinate its population at December 20, 2021!
Sorry to say, the number of new infections went only up. From January 1, 2021 until January 16, 2021, the average infections was 7,515 new infections, the lowest was 5,235 and the highest was 9,997. Over the 16 days in January 2021, there was a decrease of new infections per day of 2%. The highest growth is 40% and the lowest growth is -68%. In Israel, each Friday there is a drop of new infections reported for some reason.
When can we return to our old lives?
The answer is simple. As long as we are in a pandemic and with the incompetence of our governments, we can't go back to the old life we had before the pandemic appeared from China. But here follow the possible scenarios:
- The vaccine works and we manage to vaccinate the world population and reach herd immunity. The pandemic will be very likely defeated and we can indeed return to our old lives (if the governments allow that).
- The vaccination campaign is too slow to be implemented in the world, but the world reaches the natural herd immunity. In that case, the same effects will take place as number 1, but without vaccinations.
- The vaccine doesn't work (as fully or partly intended or designed), or there are mutations of the coronavirus, which neutralize the effects of the vaccine, the herd immunity will not reach the population (the 60%), we're in deep trouble and it will take many years (more likely many decades) before we can reach point number one here. But the chance of going back to our old live will be gone, together with the economy and society.
- Political, economical and military events will take place, which influences/covers large parts of the world. For example a deep economical depression will cripple most countries in the world. A possible war or multiple wars against major powers will cripple the world as well. A major civil war in the US will do the same. The vaccination campaign will be an afterthought.
Point number two or three is more likely than point number one. The countries and their governments don't take the global vaccination campaign serious. It takes too long to vaccinate the population and the risk of lethal mutations of the coronavirus becomes bigger by the day.
Download the basic data
All data used in this article is being prepared and calculated in a spreadsheet. You can download this spreadsheet here, where it is stored in a zip (compressed) file. That file is 1.9 Mb. large and it contains an Excel spreadsheet, and CVS-files.
The raw data used in the spreadsheet is from the Data Repository by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University. Those files are separately downloaded already and you can find them in the zip-file for your convenience.