But do we see the effects of the virus already?

Virus infections

According the theory and assumptions, when a population will have a herd immunity of 60%, it is enough protected against the virus, so  that the number of new infections will be drastic reduced and assumingly the pandemic will disappear. Reaching this percentage means that the 60% of the population is vaccinated and/or immune after infection and recovery. I'm only focusing here at the infection rate, not reduction of serious ill.

The US is one of the countries, which started with the vaccination process relatively early at December 14, 2020. That is 35 days ago. The US has about 13.6 million people vaccinated, or 4.12% of its population. The US is also the only country in the world that vaccinated so many people. All mainstream media doesn't mention that, of course. According the "theory" of the herd immunity, 4.12% is too low to have any impact on infections over a population.

We take another example. We take Israel. Israel managed to vaccinate about 26% of its population. The UAE about 19%. Those percentages are neither 60% or higher. But they might show some change in the new daily infections. Why? Because during the clinical trial of the vaccine, there were already noticeable positive changes visible after some days! If that is the case, let us take Israel as guinea pig example. Shall we?

We can see the results of a possible vaccine with the help of a chart. Here it comes.

Israel Infections

Israel Infections

Are there any positive effects of the vaccine visible? Did the number of new infections go down, even slightly? And be aware, that Israel started to vaccinate its population at December 20, 2021!

Sorry to say, the number of new infections went only up. From January 1, 2021 until January 16, 2021, the average infections was 7,515 new infections, the lowest was 5,235 and the highest was 9,997. Over the 16 days in January 2021, there was a decrease of new infections per day of 2%. The highest growth is 40% and the lowest growth is -68%. In Israel, each Friday there is a drop of new infections reported for some reason.

Infections Israel January 2021

Infections Israel January 2021


All data used in this article is being prepared and calculated in a spreadsheet. You can download this spreadsheet here, where it is stored in a zip (compressed) file. That file is 1.9 Mb. large and it contains an Excel spreadsheet, and CVS-files.

The raw data used in the spreadsheet is from the Data Repository by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University. Those files are separately downloaded already and you can find them in the zip-file for your convenience.

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