When can we return to our old lives (post pandemic)?

We will not return to our lives for many years. Why?

The answer is simple. As long as we are in a pandemic and with the incompetence of our governments, we can't go back to the old life we had before the pandemic appeared from China. But here follow the possible scenarios:

  1. The vaccine works and we manage to vaccinate the world population and reach herd immunity. The pandemic will be very likely defeated and we can indeed return to our old lives (if the governments allow that).
  2. The vaccination campaign is too slow to be implemented in the world, but the world reaches the natural herd immunity. In that case, the same effects will take place as number 1, but without vaccinations.
  3. The vaccine doesn't work (as fully or partly intended or designed), or there are mutations of the coronavirus, which neutralize the effects of the vaccine, the herd immunity will not reach the population (the 60%), we're in deep trouble and it will take many years (more likely many decades) before we can reach point number one here. But the chance of going back to our old live will be gone, together with the economy and society.
  4. Political, economical and military events will take place, which influences/covers large parts of the world. For example a deep economical depression will cripple most countries in the world. A possible war or multiple wars against major powers will cripple the world as well. A major civil war in the US will do the same. The vaccination campaign will be an afterthought.

Point number two or three is more likely than point number one. The countries and their governments don't take the global vaccination campaign serious. It takes too long to vaccinate the population and the risk of lethal mutations of the coronavirus becomes bigger by the day.

  • In the table below, we see the performance of 50 countries about their vaccination efforts.
  • In the second column we see the size of the population of each country.
  • In the third column we see the actual number of people vaccinated (at 17 of January 2021).
  • The fifth column displays the number of people supposingly be vaccinated if they want to finish it in a year.
  • The fourth column displays the percentage of the people actually vaccinated.
  • The sixth column displays the number of people supposingly be vaccinated if they want to finish it in two years.
Country Population Vaccinations per day Campaign goal completed Vacc. p.day required per day 1 year Vacc. p.day required per day 2 years
Algeria 43,851,044 0.0%  120,140  60,070
Argentina 45,195,774  9,770 7.9%  123,824  61,912
Australia 25,499,884 0.0%  69,863  34,931
Austria 9,006,398  4,046 16.4%  24,675  12,338
Belgium 11,589,623  2,426 7.6%  31,752  15,876
Brazil 212,559,417 0.0%  582,355  291,177
Canada 37,742,154  15,562 15.1%  103,403  51,702
China 1,439,323,776  268,264 6.8%  3,943,353  1,971,676
Colombia 50,882,891 0.0%  139,405  69,703
Czechia 10,708,981  4,377 14.9%  29,340  14,670
Denmark 5,792,202  7,533 47.5%  15,869  7,935
Dominican Republic 10,847,910 0.0%  29,720  14,860
Ecuador 17,643,054 0.0%  48,337  24,169
Egypt 102,334,404 0.0%  280,368  140,184
Finland 5,540,720  2,002 13.2%  15,180  7,590
France 65,273,511  14,993 8.4%  178,832  89,416
Germany 83,783,942  46,484 20.3%  229,545  114,773
Greece 10,423,054  3,701 13.0%  28,556  14,278
Hong Kong 7,496,981 0.0%  20,540  10,270
Iceland 341,243  282 30.2%  935  467
India 1,380,004,385  106,976 2.8%  3,780,834  1,890,417
Indonesia 273,523,615  5 0.0%  749,380  374,690
Iran 83,992,949 0.0%  230,118  115,059
Ireland 4,937,786  3,954 29.2%  13,528  6,764
Israel 8,884,590  79,572 326.9%  24,341  12,171
Italy 60,461,826  51,909 31.3%  165,649  82,824
Japan 126,476,461 0.0%  346,511  173,255
Luxembourg 625,978  115 6.7%  1,715  858
Malaysia 32,365,999 0.0%  88,674  44,337
Mexico 128,932,753  13,442 3.8%  353,240  176,620
Netherlands 17,134,872  3,463 7.4%  46,945  23,472
Norway 5,421,241  1,949 13.1%  14,853  7,426
Pakistan 220,892,340 0.0%  605,184  302,592
Panama 4,314,767 0.0%  11,821  5,911
Peru 32,971,854 0.0%  90,334  45,167
Philippines 109,581,078 0.0%  300,222  150,111
Poland 37,846,611  20,278 19.6%  103,689  51,845
Portugal 10,196,709  5,158 18.5%  27,936  13,968
Russia 145,934,462  34,444 8.6%  399,820  199,910
Singapore 5,850,342  334 2.1%  16,028  8,014
South Korea 51,269,185 0.0%  140,464  70,232
South Africa 57,780,000 0.0%  158,301  79,151
Spain 46,754,778  37,420 29.2%  128,095  64,048
Sweden 10,099,265  3,688 13.3%  27,669  13,835
Switzerland 8,654,622 0.0%  23,711  11,856
Taiwan 23,816,775 0.0%  65,251  32,626
UAE 9,631,000  52,040 197.2%  26,386  13,193
Ukraine 43,733,762 0.0%  119,819  59,909
United Kingdom 67,886,011  123,089 66.2%  185,989  92,995
United States 331,478,677  395,690 43.6%  908,161  454,080
Total 7,819,071,233  912,763 4.3%  21,422,113  10,711,056

 

Download the basic data

All data used in this article is being prepared and calculated in a spreadsheet. You can download this spreadsheet here, where it is stored in a zip (compressed) file. That file is 1.9 Mb. large and it contains an Excel spreadsheet, and CVS-files.

The raw data used in the spreadsheet is from the Data Repository by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University. Those files are separately downloaded already and you can find them in the zip-file for your convenience.

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